Chinese CPI in March between 1.3%-1.4% China data heighten fears of deflation

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Chinese consumer price inflation rebounded in February thanks largely to the effects of the lunar new year festival but worries remain that the world’s factory floor is headed for outright deflation.
Consumer prices rose 1.4 per cent in February from a year earlier, up from a 0.8 per cent increase in January, according to the government’s official consumer price index published on Tuesday.
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January’s reading was the lowest in more than five years.

China’s official producer price index fell 4.8 per cent last month from a year earlier, an accelerating decline from the 4.3 per cent drop in January and the worst result since October 2009.
The PPI, often regarded as a leading indicator for consumer prices, has now been in deflationary territory for three straight years thanks to sliding domestic demand and chronic overcapacity in many sectors.
China’s central bank cut interest rates for the second time in just three months at the start of March, citing “historically low inflation” and the need to keep real interest rates low to boost slumping growth.
China’s economy grew 7.4 per cent last year, the slowest pace in nearly a quarter of a century, and growth is expected to fall further this year.
Beijing unveiled an annual gross domestic product growth target for 2015 of “around 7 per cent” last week, down from “around 7.5 per cent” last year. The IMF forecasts growth of 6.8 per cent this year.
Deflationary pressures in China have been exacerbated by the steep drop in global oil prices but also by slumping prices of commodities such as iron ore, copper and aluminium, which are falling in large part because of the slowdown in China.
Despite the rebound in consumer prices in February, the inflation rate is still less than half of the government’s target of “around 3 per cent” for the year.
The combined consumer inflation rate in January and February, which smoothes out the distortion from the lunar new year holiday, was 1.1 per cent
“The main reason for the rebound in the CPI was the different timing of the lunar spring festival this year,” said Chinese investment bank CICC in a research note on Tuesday. “The monthly rebound in prices of fresh vegetables, fruit and pork was quite large and this was a reflection of the temporary impact of the lunar new year. However, after seasonal adjustment there is still downward pressure on the CPI.”

Thanks to demand over the extended holiday, volatile food prices were the main contributor to the pick-up in inflation while non-food inflation remained subdued with an increase of just 0.9 per cent in February.
In a sign that China’s two-year-old anti-corruption campaign is still having an effect on consumption patterns, prices of tobacco and alcohol — traditionally favoured gifts and bribes given at Chinese new year — fell by 0.6 per cent in February from a year earlier.
Chinese CPI in March between 1.3%-1.4% China data heighten fears of deflation,for more information about china world news visit site at http://youtube.com/user/cosmeticmachines as well as business website at http://penglaichina.com

CN official PMI rises to 50.1 in March China's factories slump amid growth concerns

China's factory activity surprisingly expanded in March, government data showed on Wednesday, but analysts are still betting on more easing measures to come, to prevent growth from slipping further.
The official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), the bellwether of large industrial firms, rose to 50.1 in March from February's 49.9, a touch above the 50-mark that that separates growth from contraction. A Reuters forecast had expected a figure of 49.8.
The reading was better than the March HSBC final PMI, also released Wednesday, which showed the nation's vast manufacturing sector in contraction. The 49.6 final print, however, is stronger than the preliminary figure of 49.2.
The Australian dollar snapped six sessions of declines against the dollar on the news, climbing to a high of $0.7664, from $0.7612. The Shanghai Composite traded 0.8 percent higher by mid-morning, while the Hang Seng rose 0.5 percent.
"After a string of disappointing data, the improvement in the official PMI is welcome news and suggests that the recent rate cuts and pick-up in bank lending growth may be helping to support large firms," Julian Evans-Pritchard, China economist with Capital Economics, wrote in a note.
"That said, growth is still likely to have slowed sharply last quarter and we expect more policy support measures, including further rate cuts and required reserve ratio reductions, as the government moves to avoid missing its annual growth target," he added.
The employment component also rose but the new orders component fell, with a similar sized fall in the export orders subcomponent suggesting that softening external demand was partly responsible.
"The pickup in the manufacturing PMI was concentrated among larger firms, likely reflecting expectations of stabilizing demand from China's construction industry," said Bill Adams, senior international economist for PNC Financial Services Group.
China's economy has been dragged down by a slowing property sector, volatile exports and weak consumption.

In another sign that businesses faced lackluster demand, a separate survey of China's services sector showed the official non-manufacturing PMI fell to 53.7 from February's 53.9, hugging a one-year low of 53.7 struck in January.
Earlier this week, the People's Bank of China moved to boost property sales, slashing the downpayment required to buy second homes and waiving the tax on some deals, a move analysts say signals more easing to come.
Since November, the central bank cut interest rates twice and lowered the reserve requirement ratios (RRR) of major banks once, as growth in the world's second largest economy slowed to 7.4 percent, its slowest pace since 1990.
Beijing has set 2015 growth target at "around 7 percent."
"The economy is facing a lot of pressure downward. The policy easing will help in the second half, but the first half will face more headwinds," said Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist & head of China equity at Deutsche Bank, who expects growth in the first two quarters to fall below 7 percent.
HSBC, the author of the private PMI survey, expects further stimulus in the coming weeks.

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